Sunday, July 19, 2009

Bonthu Nagi Reddy predictions for Andhra Pradesh Elections'09

Friday, April 24, 2009

Bonthu Nagi Reddy ( Source is Amarnath Reddy.Atamakuri, CEO, IEG, Andhra Pradesh )

#######Survey reports:These are all from first hand sources - no non sense and no grapevine talk.NDTV exit poll/ survey - Total 42 MP seats.

Congress will win 28.TDP + TRS + CPI + CPM will win 12.PRP - 1 and MIM - 1.You can see it on the videos below click on "Battleground 2009: Phase 2 polling ends".Election Commission banned exit poll reports. That is why NDTV says it is "analysis" But they have done a true exit poll.NTV exit poll: Congress will win 86 out of 140 in second phase.

TDP survey (done by Narayana Group of Schools): In second phase (out of 140), Cong - 72, Mahakutami - 39, PRP - 24, Others - 5. In first phase, Congress will win 63 and Kutami will win 72. MIM - 7 and rest others.Eenadu survey (from very reliable sources) - Out of 42 MP seats, Congress will win 33 andMahakutami will win 7, PRP - 1 and MIM - 1.In assembly, Congress will win 145 to 155 seats.Intelligence reports: First phase - Congress will win 65 and in second phase Congress will win 90.

TDP batch analysis: TDP will form the Government on its own.

Leader analysis: :-)

YSR says congress will win 230.
CBN says kutami will cross 200.
Chiru says 80 for PRP. :-)

District wise analysis
Adilabad: 10 assembly segments. Congress gave a fight in 4 or 5 segments. May win a few of those.

Nizamabad: 9 assembly segments. Congress gave a fight in 4. Only Nizamabad looks promising. Rest are doubtful.

Karimnagar: 13 assembly segments. Congress gave a fight in 6 segments. Congress may win 2 or so. One independent (K. K. Mahendar Reddy) gave a tough fight to KTR (son of KCR) in Siricilla. He has 50% chances. However, Congress may win one or both MP seats here - surprisingly (Peddapalli and Karimnagar)

Medak: 10 assembly segments. Congress will win 6 or 7 segments. Vijayasanthi might loose Medak MP seat.

Ranga Reddy + Hyderabad: 29 assembly segments.Congress will win 14. MIM will win 7. Jayasudha gave a tough fight to Srinivasa Yadav.

Mahabubnagar: 14 segments. Congress might win 8 or so. KCR may loose his MP election.

Nalgonda: 12 segments. Congress will win 8 here including both MP seats.Warangal: 12. Congress 4 to 6 MLA and will win

Warangal MP seat.Khammam: 10. Congress 4 or 5.Renuka Chowdary might loose MP election.

Visakhapatnam: 15. Congress 7 to 10. Purandeswari has 70% chance of winning.

Vizayanagaram: 9. Congress 4 to 6. Botcha Jhansi (w/o Botcha Satyanarayana) has 50% chanceof winning MP seat.

Srikakulam: 10. Congress 7 or 8. Yerram Naidu of TDP will loose his MP seat to Congress.

East Godavari: 19. Congress 9 or above. Jakkampudi's wife might loose.

West Godavari: 15. Congress 9 to 11. Congress may win Palakollu MLA seat over Chiranjeevi and also Narsapuram (home town of Chiranjeevi).

Krishna: 16. Congress 6 to 8. Rajagopal has only 35% chance of winning MP.

Guntur: 17. Congress 9 to 12. We will win both MP seats - Rayapati and Balashowri.Prakasam: 12. Congress 8 to 10.

Nellore: 10. Congress 7 or 8. We will win Nellore MP comfortably.

Kadapa: 10. Congress 8.YSR will win PUlivendla with 65K+ majority. YS Jagan will win with over 2 Lakh majority.

Kurnool: 14. Congress 9 or 10.

Anantapur: 14. Congress 10 or 11. Paritala Sunitha faces a tough fight - win or loose.. will be within 5K. JC Diwakar Reddy also facing a very tough fight. His chances are also 50%.

Chittoor: 14. Congress 10.

Summary: In Rayalaseema, Nellore and Prakasam, Congress will sweep the election. In Guntur and Krishna, TDP will give a reasonable fight. In East Godavari,

PRP will challenge congress. In West Godavari, the fight will be between Congress and PRP in half the constituencies and between Congress and TDP in half the constituencies. In Krishna and Guntur, the Kapu vote split will give TDP a few seats. Overall,

I predict Congress to comfortably cross the 148 mark and will land somewhere between 160 and 170.

Don't be surprised if Congress gets much higher seats. Cash Transfer Scheme (2,000 per month) did not seem to work in a major fashion. It may have a very negligible effect

Thanks n Regards,
Bonthu Nagi Reddy.