Sunday, July 19, 2009

Bonthu Nagi Reddy - Andhra Pradesh 2009 Assembly and Parliment Election Bonthu Nagi Reddy Predictions ( Vs ) Actual Results.

Please see the Few days back i sent survey to all of you or click this link
Let me take some personal pleasure in post morteming my prelection analysis with post-election results.

District wise analysisAdilabad: 10 assembly segments. Congress gave a fight in 4 or 5 segments. May win a few of those.>> Actual result: Congress won in 1.

Nizamabad: 9 assembly segments. Congress gave a fight in 4. Only Nizamabad looks promising. Rest are doubtful.>> Actual result: Congress won in 1

Karimnagar: 13 assembly segments. Congress gave a fight in 6 segments. Congress may win 2 or so.>> Actual result: Congress won in 3
One independent (K. K. Mahendar Reddy) gave a tough fight to KTR (son of KCR) in Siricilla.>> Actual result: KK gave an extreme fight and lost only by 171 votes
He has 50% chances. However, Congress may win one or both MP seats here - surprisingly (Peddapalli and Karimnagar)>> Actual result: Congress really won both the MP seats

Medak: 10 assembly segments.
Congress will win 6 or 7 segments. Vijayasanthi might loose Medak MP seat.>> Actual result: Congress won 8 seats. Vijayasanthi barely won by 6000 votes - courtesy Harish Rao's Siddipet.

Ranga Reddy + Hyderabad: 29 assembly segments.
Congress will win 14. MIM will win 7.Jayasudha gave a tough fight to Srinivasa Yadav.>> Actual Result: Congress won exactly 14 and MIM won exactly 7. Jayasudha beat Srinivasa Yadav in a tough fight.

Mahabubnagar: 14 segments.Congress might win 8 or so. KCR may loose his MP election.>> Actual Result: Little bit off here. Congress won only 4. KCR escaped with 19,000 majority. Vittal Rao did not do a good job in picking Mahaboobnagar MLA.

Nalgonda: 12 segments.Congress will win 8 here including both MP seats.>> Actual Result: Congress won 7 seats and both MPs.

Warangal: 12. Congress 4 to 6 MLA and will win Warangal MP seat.>> Actual Result: Congress won 7 assembly and the Warangal MP seat

Khammam: 10. Congress 4 or 5.Renuka Chowdary might loose MP election.>> Actual Result: Congress won exactly 5 and Renuka Chowdary lost.

Visakhapatnam: 15. Congress 7 to 10.Purandeswari has 70% chance of winning.>> Actual Result: Congress won 7 and Purandareswari won.

Vizayanagaram: 9. Congress 4 to 6.Botcha Jhansi (w/o Botcha Satyanarayana) has 50% chance of winning MP seat.>> Actual: Congress won 7 and Botcha Jhansi won.

Srikakulam: 10. Congress 7 or 8.Yerram Naidu of TDP will loose his MP seat to Congress.>> Congress won 9 and Yerram Naidu lost.

East Godavari: 19. Congress 9 or above.Jakkampudi's wife might loose.>> Congress won 11 and Jakkampudi's wife lost.

West Godavari: 15. Congress 9 to 11.Congress may win Palakollu MLA seat over Chiranjeevi and also Narsapuram (home town of Chiranjeevi).>> Actual: Congress won 9 and Chiranjeevi lost in Palcole and NarsapuramKrishna: 16. Congress 6 to 8.Rajagopal has only 35% chance of winning MP.>> Actual: Congress won 6 and Rajagopal won with slim margin.

Guntur: 17. Congress 9 to 12.We will win both MP seats - Rayapati and Balashowri.>> Actual: Congress won 11 and Rayapati won. Balashowri missed just 1600 votes.Prakasam: 12. Congress 8 to 10.>> Congress won 10.

Nellore: 10. Congress 7 or 8.We will win Nellore MP comfortably.>> Little bit off here as well. Congress won 4 and we won the MP.

Kadapa: 10. Congress 8.YSR will win PUlivendla with 65K+ majority. YS Jagan will win with over 2 Lakh majority.>> Congress 9. YSR - 68,000. Jagan majority - 1.78 lakhs

Kurnool: 14. Congress 9 or 10.>> Actual: 8Anantapur: 14. Congress 10 or 11. Paritala Sunitha faces a tough fight - win or loose..will be within 5K. JC Diwakar Reddy also facing a very tough fight. His chances are also 50%.>> Congress - 8. JC won. Paritala sunitha won as I said with 1000 votes.Chittoor: 14. Congress 10.>> Actual - 8.

Summary: -
In Rayalaseema, Nellore and Prakasam, Congress will sweep the election.
In Guntur and Krishna, TDP will give a reasonable fight.
In East Godavari, PRP will challenge congress.
In West Godavari, the fight will be between Congress and PRP in half the constituencies and between Congress and TDP in half the constituencies.
In Krishna and Guntur, the Kapu vote split will give TDP a few seats. Overall, I predict Congress to comfortably cross the 148 mark and will land somewhere between 160 and 170. Don't be surprised if Congress gets much higher seats. Cash Transfer Scheme (2,000 per month) did not seem to work in a major fashion. It may have a very negligible effect.

>> Overall I said somewhere between 160 and 170 - Missed the range by 3 constituencies. NOT BAD AT ALL I PRESUME.

--Thanks n Rgds,
Bonthu Nagi Reddy
YSR Yuva Sena U.S.A Committee
(A Group of Anna YSR die-hard fans in America)